My NFL Predictions

Hey everyone, double blog posting in one day. Labor Day will do that to you.

The NFL season is upon us and there are a lot of storylines to look forward to. I’ll hit many of them throughout the preview. I honestly say one or two positive things about every franchise, accept maybe the Bengals. I’ll get to them.

For those of you who want the cliff notes version of my predictions and don’t want to read the analysis, here it is below:

AFC East- New England
AFC North- Pittsburgh
AFC South- Indianapolis
AFC West- San Diego
Wild Card- Jacksonville, Denver
AFC Champ- San Diego

NFC East- Dallas
NFC North- Minnesota
NFC South- New Orleans
NFC West- Arizona
Wild Card- Green Bay, Carolina
NFC Champ- Dallas

Super Bowl- San Diego over Dallas

Coach of the Year- Sean Payton
MVP- Drew Brees
Offensive MVP- Randy Moss
Defensive MVP- Osi Umenyiora…wait, damn Coughlin! DeMarcus Ware and Jared Allen (tie)
Comeback Player- Ricky Williams (so happy for this one)
Offensive ROY- Darren McFadden
Defensive ROY- Vernon Gholston

OK, those are the quick predictions; let’s break them down some more

AFC East:

1) New England
2) Buffalo
3) New York
4) Miami

Thoughts: I do think that New England takes a step back this season, but not too far to lose this division. The Patriots are still going to win their 11 or 12 games because when you have Brady and Moss and the solid, yet aging defense in that division, they are still going to win their share of games. The Bills are making progress and I like Trent Edwards but not enough to make them contend with the Patriots. I do like Evans being a playmaker on the receiving end and Lynch is a potential superstar at running back. The defense was solid last year but wilted too often. The Jets will be interesting because of Favre of course. They upgraded the QB position and will score some points, but it’s a team game and the defense doesn’t show me much. Miami is still getting it stuff together, but I’m looking forward to the return of Ricky Williams! Good times. I know that drugs are bad, but he’s comic relief for me.

AFC North:

1) Pittsburgh
2) Cleveland
3) Baltimore
4) Cincinnati

I can see Pittsburgh and Cleveland slugging it out but taking the Steelers because they have a slightly easier schedule. I don’t like how the injury bug is starting to hit the Browns and that run defense is going to be major problems for them, especially facing Pittsburgh twice and the Cowboys to start the year. However, you can argue that the weakest point of the Steelers is that offensive line and I’m concerned about that too. The Ravens should start a rookie quarterback and has an aging defense and a running back who has injury issues. Yeah, love those guys.

You know who I love even more, those Bengals. They are going to have a long season. How do you bring back Chris Henry to that team? Chad Ocho Cinco? Why? Cutting Rudi Johnson and Willie Anderson? I actually feel sorry for Carson Palmer.

AFC South:

1) Indianapolis
2) Jacksonville
3) Tennessee
4) Houston

Thoughts: If there’s one team that needs to be concerned right now is Indy. Between Manning, Saturday, Freeney, Harrison, Sanders and some others struggling to make it on the field or regain their peak skills, that’s not a good sign. However, I’m still going to take a run at them winning the division. If Jacksonville wins this one, wouldn’t shock me at all. They run the ball well and have a solid defense.

The Titans are an interesting story. The defense is good enough to make them a conference title contender. The offense…I need to see some more from Vince Young to make them a major player. They are a border-line playoff team. Love the rookie running back Johnson. The Texans are good but I just don’t see enough from them.

AFC West

1) San Diego
2) Denver
3) Oakland
4) Kansas City

Thoughts: The Chargers are loaded. They have all of the pieces but the Merriman injury worries me greatly. I’m going out on a limb and taking Denver to finish second and for Cutler to have a breakout season. There is hope for Oakland. I like the McFadden pick and Russell is going to be an excellent quarterback. Who he will throw the ball to, I don’t know. And don’t give me Jevon Walker. Kansas City, well, at least they have good food there.

NFC East

1) Dallas
2) New York
3) Philadelphia
4) Washington

Thoughts: We all know about Dallas. They should have the best record in the NFC, maybe the entire league. The talent overflow is amazing and when you throw in guys like Tank Johnson and Pacman Jones, they have a chance to be a special team. Of course, the problem with this team is that they are a combustible group. They may have too many egos and too many distractions from the players’ dating lives, to coaches looking over each others shoulders to T.O. being T.O. to ownership being overbearing to…two words:

Pacman and Tank. Keep the children away, keep those two away from the strip clubs and guns and maybe they may last the whole season.

My Giants, it’s always an interesting experience following your team after it wins a championship. You have expectations for your team to do well, but you know that repeating a championship is very, very hard to do. I don’t know who came up this theory but someone said that you should give your team a five-year grace period if they win a title. I agree with that. As long as the Giants are competitive, I won’t be mad how they do.

On the field, I think that you will see some improvement offensively because you will see the emergence of Steve Smith as a receiver. Losing Shockey hurts, but Boss is a good tight end. The line is sold and the running backs are good as well. Obviously, losing Osi for the season is a problem because the Giants’ weak link is the secondary and without a good pass rush, New York will have problems defending the pass.

Another problem is that the Eagles and Redskins are better this season too. There are no easy wins in that division. I’m very worried about the Eagles. McNabb is a solid QB IF HE STAYS HEALTHY. Westbrook is a beast and I like Jackson, the rookie, to have an impact. Washington is ok too, but the new head coach is always a risky thing to bank on. Positions 2-4 in this division are wide open. Where the rest of the three teams place wouldn’t surprise me. The Cowboys will finish first, that’s a guarantee.

NFC North:

1) Minnesota
2) Green Bay
3) Detroit
4) Chicago

Thoughts: I like what the Vikings have done. Peterson is an MVP candidate; both lines are above average, especially the defense with the addition of Jared Allen. McKinney getting suspended for the first four games of the season was a smooth move. It all comes down to Tarvaris Jackson. He needs to develop some consistency at the QB position.

The Packers are finally rid of Brett Favre and while they may be a better team with him on paper, after the off-season, they are better without him overall. Rodgers is going to be fine. He’s going to have ups and downs like anyone else, but the rest of this team is still solid and shouldn’t be dismissed.

Detroit has too many flaws to make a run at anything and Chicago’s QB situation just makes me sad.

NFC South

1) New Orleans
2) Carolina
3) Tampa Bay
4) Atlanta

Thoughts: I’ve switched back and forth between the Saints and Panthers to win this division. Both have pros and cons. I’m going with the Saints because I like their offense more than the Panthers and I think that Carolina’s defense has taken a step back.

Tampa Bay has 8-8 written all over it and the Falcons are in complete rebuild mode.

NFC West

1) Seattle
2) Arizona
3) St. Louis
4) San Francisco

Thoughts: Worst division in football. Seattle wins this one by default. I really wanted to take Arizona, but that QB situation disappoints me. Kurt Warner, really? Matt Leinart has issues. I think St. Louis will be spunky, especially if Steven Jackson stays healthy. San Francisco is going to have another long season. The addition of Martz doesn’t excite me as much as other people.

Awards:

Super Bowl: Here are the only teams that can compete and win the Super Bowl: New England, San Diego, Jacksonville, Dallas, Minnesota, and New Orleans. That’s it. Make a combo out of those teams and there you go. Some teams are missing and that’s intentional. When all else fails, pick the most desperate team and the one with the most talent. The Chargers need to win a title now. Dallas needs to win a title now. The end.

MVP: Drew Brees. I think this is a major rebound season for him. Somebody may pass for more yards or more touchdowns, but he will be the catalyst for a revival and voters will like that. Tomlinson will continue to put up sick numbers for a potential 13-3 team and Randy Moss will get third after receiving attention for kinda being slighted out of the MVP award last season.

Offensive MVP: The award is different. Moss will put up more amazing numbers for a receiver and get recognized in this way. Peterson from Minnesota will come in second and Tomlinson is third.

Defensive MVP: I think that Jared Allen is going to have a monster year for the Vikings. He wants to prove that he’s worth the money; his teammates are excellent so you can’t focus on him and you’re putting him on that fast turf for at least eight games. He’s going to do work. Ware is also going to get consideration as well because the voters are going to acknowledge the best defensive player on the best team is going to get love. Look out for Champ Bailey here as well. If Osi didn’t blow out his damn knee, I would have picked him objectively because he was poised to have a monster year too. Damn Coughlin.

Comeback Player: Ricky Williams is going to rush for a lot of yards in Miami. Jake Delhomme will have a good bounce back season with the Panthers as well.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: McFadden is going to put up some sexy numbers as a running back. Watch out for Matt Ryan, DeSean Jackson, Jonathan Stewart and even Chris Johnson. All of these guys are going to get a chance to play. Problem is that Ryan is a rookie QB and is going to be too inconsistent, DeSean Jackson may not get enough touches, same for Stewart and Johnson who are sharing the backfield with veterans. The QB from the Ravens is a darkhorse.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Gholston is going to get some sacks and look exciting and get the most attention. Guys like Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey are probably going to have more solid seasons but not get the attention. Jared Mayo of the Patriots is a darkhorse.

Those are the picks. I would love to hear or see yours. Similar to my baseball predictions, I will have updates on the picks every four or five games.

While doing this post, I was watching One Tree Hill and they played this Coldplay song in the final scenes. I’m hooked on this show, laugh if you want.

Later.