My NBA Postseason Review and Playoff Predictions

Its time for that NBA Review before the playoffs take place. Its been an interesting year for the league. We’ve seen some former elite teams like Detroit take a step down, new powers emerge like Cleveland and teams like the Lakers and Celtics continue where they took off from last year.
I’m going to go with my postseason awards and then go into my predictions for the first round of the playoffs.

a) Rookie of the Year

Criteria: Unlike the MVP award, which I will get to later, I usually go with the best player who is a rookie

Honorable Mention: Mario Chalmers (Miami). When you’re the starting rookie point guard for a team that made as dramatic of an improvement as the Heat did, you deserve a mention in the Rookie of the Year voting.

Preseason candidate that I expected more from: Michael Beasley (Miami) and Greg Oden (Portland). Michael turned it on in the past few weeks right before the playoffs but from what we saw in college, Beasley should have been producing more from the beginning. Oden has been a disappointment, no matter how you spin it. I didn’t see the potential people were hyping on him from when he was at Ohio State. I thought that he was too mechanical and slow to be an elite player in the NBA and I don’t see it now. Portland should have taken Durant and I said that from day one.

I hate being tough on rookies because some of them, even the elite players need time to develop.

5. Kevin Love (Minnesota). He’s rebounds very well for someone his size, nearly 10 per game. The injury to Al Jefferson actually will help him and possibly the team in the long run because Love has developed his skills.

4. Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City). I must admit that I thought that the former Sonics stretched a bit when they took Westbook with the #4 pick in the draft last year but he has formed an excellent nucleus with Durant and Jeff Green.

3. O.J. Mayo (Memphis). I wasn’t a fan of this guy in college because I let the off-the-court stuff get in the way of viewing him as a player but he’s talented. I would like to see him at shooting guard but he has shown the skill to play point out of necessity. Unfortunately, I don’t like the potential bad habits that he may form playing on a bad team.

2. Brooke Lopez (New Jersey). I was a fan of Brook at Stanford and thought that he would be a solid pro. I didn’t think that he would be the second-best rookie in this class.

1. Derek Rose (Chicago). I thought that the guy had a chance to be an All-Star talent coming into the league. We all knew that he was physical enough to get his own shot and be a solid defender. The thing that has surprised me the most has been his ability to distribute the ball and keep the team moving. The most difficult position to adjust to as a rookie is point guard because you are the leader on both ends of the floor. That’s why respect has to be given to Chalmers and Mayo, but back to Rose. He has led the team to a playoff berth with a dysfunctional bunch of average parts. If he develops a consistent jump shot and gets some talent around him (hello Chris Bosh?), he can be a Hall of Famer, seriously, the ceiling is that high for him.

b) Most Surprising Team

Criteria: You can take a cynical look at it and choose teams that surprised in a bad way, but I’ll save that for the disappointing teams. The way I do this one is to look at where I thought the team would finish at the start of the season and see where they are now.
Honorable mention: This will go to the non-playoff team that I didn’t thing would do much yet had a respectable run this season. Minnesota had a good second half of the season until Jefferson got hurt, Charlotte has shown life as a franchise, but I’m going to go with Oklahoma City. Look, I know that it’s a stretch because they won only 23 games but when I saw how they played the Spurs towards the end of the season, I didn’t expect any of that from them this year.

4) Chicago. Lets take a look at this squad. Rookie head coach, rookie point guard with the pressure of playing in his hometown, disgruntled shooting guard, inconsistent yet wildly talented power forward, benched former staring point guard, a small forward who I thought would be tremendous, has underwhelmed, signed his big contract and is still, well, underwhelming and other average pieces produce a playoff team. I know that it’s the East but I thought that the Bulls would be ok and still a year away from the playoffs.

3) Houston. I thought that the Ron Artest experiment was not going to work. I knew that McGrady would get hurt again, you have to consistently expect that from his career at this stage. What I didn’t expect was a healthy Ming to last this year and that dude has held them together this season. I still don’t think that they make it out of the first round, again, but to finish with 53 wins is impressive.

2) Orlando. I believed that they would win their division and thought that Dwight Howard would continue his evolution as a franchise player. What I didn’t expect was for Nelson to turn into an All-Star caliber player, Hedu continue to play at this level and Rashard Lewis to almost play up to his contract. All of this has been a surprise to me and I didn’t see 58 wins in this squad. Speaking of not seeing wins…

1) Cleveland. 66 wins with this bunch? You’ve got to be kidding me. We can all acknowledge that Mo Williams is a nice addition to this team but I didn’t see this coming. I knew that LeBron could elevate his play to an MVP level and I’ll get to that later but I didn’t expect this team to win 66 games. The team has made a good job of committing to becoming one unit, catering to its superstar, playing excellent defense and actually showing some offensive diversity.

c) Most Disappointing Team

Criteria: This is a tough one to indicate because do you pick a team that was supposed to make the playoffs but didn’t or do you pick a team that made the playoffs yet played at a lower level than you expected or do you pick a team that you thought would be crappy but was even worse than you thought.

Honorable mention: This will go to the playoff team that I thought would be in a better position. There’s only one team that fits this category and in fact, we’re going to save them for a little later.

4) Toronto. I picked them to make the playoffs and disappointed me and the entire nation of Canada tremendously. They lost their coach, their plan to incorporate Jermaine O’Neil into the rotation ended in disaster, they ended up with Shawn Marion, why, Jose Calderon made me look bad at believing that he could be an Alls-Star. Just a mess

3) New Orleans. Well, seeing how I predicted that they would win the NBA title and they’re the SEVEN seed in the West, that’s not good. I don’t care what the numbers say, the entire cast has regressed accept for Paul.

2) Detroit. They are the disappointing playoff team. I expected some slippage from the standard they’ve set the last few years but my goodness, what has happened to this bunch? The Iverson trade didn’t work out, Stuckey didn’t elevate his play at guard, Hamilton got hurt and Wallace didn’t help in any way.

1) Phoenix. That team should have made the playoffs over Dallas. I know that Amare got hurt and all but they should have had a better season.

d) Most Improved Player

Criteria: This one is unique also because its hard to quantify “improved.” Do you take someone who was terrible and became average? Do you take someone who was average and became an elite talent? You can go with either choice.

Honorable mention: David Lee and Nate Robinson, Knicks. I know that as a Knicks fan its easy for me to pick these two guys but this proves once again that D’Antoni can make darn near anyone look like a champ in his system.

4) Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City). Offensively, he had an excellent season. The coaching staff finally moved him away from shooting guard, placed him at forward and you saw what happened. We all know that he can get points, but I was more impressed with his shot selection this year, it has gotten much better. He’s also rebounding better. The defense will hopefully eventually come around but the dude is 20 years old, incredible talent.

3) Paul Millsap (Utah). His effort this season has kept Utah afloat and actually made the question of getting rid of Carlos Boozer in Utah not laughable.

2) Danny Granger (Indiana). I know that Indiana hasn’t had the best season but Granger has evolved into a complete player this year.

1) Devin Harris (New Jersey). Once again, his team didn’t make the playoffs but his jump this season gives him the award

e) Sixth Man of the Year

Criteria: This goes to the best bench player.

Dishonorable mention: I was going to do a Least Improved Player section and that would have included people like Elton Brand, Baron Davis, etc. but I came back to one guy and we will honor him.

At this stage in his career, Allen Iverson would be the perfect sixth man for a contending team. He could come off the bench, score his points, provide instant offense and a spark for the team. However, Iverson continued to act like his own selfish self and wrecked Detroit’s chances to at least be competitive this season in the playoffs. Congrats Iverson, well done.

4) Travis Outlaw (Portland). Good development of his career and the second-most clutch player on the team.

3) Chris Anderson (Denver). The Birdman has returned and how! I like the energy, especially on the defensive end. Most good sixth men come in and give the team an offensive spark. However, Anderson does the opposite and should be credited with that.

2) Nate Robinson (New York). Nate is a joy to watch and can put up big numbers but can be reckless with the ball as well. However, he does most of what a sixth man should do.

1) Jason Terry (Dallas). This was an easy choice and he really gets Dallas going.

f) Coach of the Year

Criteria: This is a tough one to do. Do you pick the coach of the best team? Do you go with the coach whose team improved the most from last year? Do you pick the coach who worked the most with the least? Any of these approaches are fine in my book.

Honorable mention: There were some legit candidates that didn’t even make the top-five. Phil Jackson, Doc Rivers, Jerry Sloan, Larry Brown, Mike D’Antoni and George Karl are some.

5) Erik Spoelstra (Miami). OK, granted, having Wade come back to full form helped the rookie head coach but it takes a lot more to steer a team that was terrible last year and incorporate two rookies into the starting rotation. That’s not easy.

4) Rick Adelman (Houston). Between dealing with the injuries to Artest and McGrady along with the trading of Alston has made this one of Adelman’s better coaching jobs of the year.

3) Nate McMillan (Blazers). He did an excellent job of leading this young team through an entire season in a tough conference and even got to host a first round series.

2) Stan Van Gundy (Orlando). His constant focus on defense and the ability to transition Lewis to a solid power forward, continued development of Howard and more importantly, keeping the team at an elevated level despite the loss of Nelson to injury.

1) Mike Brown (Cleveland). This one is a little personal because I’ve talked about how bad of a coach he has been the last two years before this one. You can tell that he has improved on the job and finally has an offensive system that works for LeBron and the rest of the team. He has also gotten a lot out of Mo Williams and the rest of the parts of the team.

g) MVP

Criteria: We have finally reached the final award of importance. Oh, for Defensive Player of the Year, I’ll go with Dwight Howard.

OK, now to the MVP. You can go with the most talented player or the best player or the one most valuable to the team, meaning if you took this player out of the team’s lineup, the team would be the most negatively affected.

For reference, this is what I said before the start of the year:

“Hear me out on this one. I think that Kobe is the best player in the world. I think that LeBron is physically the most dominant. However, Paul is the most valuable player to his team’s success. Kobe will probably lead his team to the best record in the NBA which is going to help his cause. LeBron is due for a season of 31 points, nine rebounds and eight assists, which would be sick. However, Paul runs the show for my eventual conference title champions. Well, gave that one prediction away. The wildcard is Wade, who looked like a monster in the Olympics. If he is healthy, he is right there with the other three guys. If he has an amazing season, remember you read it here first.”

Ok, here’s my MVP ballot:

5) Dwight Howard (Orlando) and Paul Pierce (Boston): Yes, it’s a tie and I don’t like giving ties. It was tough deciding between these two guys. I had Howard a little higher in the middle of the season and he has faded some. But if you look at the overall picture, he has had an outstanding season. Pierce deserves credit for continuing to elevate the Celtics despite the loss of Garnett for the past two months. His defense has continued to improve to the point that he is an All-NBA defender, which he wasn’t three years ago.

4) Kobe Bryant (Lakers). When Phil Jackson said that Kobe was underrated, I at first dismissed it and rolled my eyes at someone once again kissing the butt of Bryant. However, Jackson is right.

Perimeter guys, especially guards, aren’t supposed to be this durable. Honestly, here are the guards in the history of the game that you can argue are better than Kobe. Magic and MJ are givens. Robertson and Jerry West are probably ahead of him right now. That’s the list. A lot of us don’t like the cocky attitude, the incident that happened in Colorado, his separation from Shaq, etc. However, in the end, you can’t deny the guys talent and his guidance of the best team in the NBA.

3) Chris Paul (New Orleans). The guy led the league in steals, assists and scored 20+ points this year. He did the same thing last year. I can stop there but look at New Orleans. West is putting up the same numbers but he isn’t the same player as last year. Chandler has regressed to the point that the Hornets tried to trade the guy. Paul has been tremendously valuable to the team but not as much as the two guys below.

2) Dwayne Wade (Miami). You read what I said above about Wade being a sleeper for this award. You can thank me later. Also, he got 44 wins out of that squad? Who on that team would you take besides maybe Beasley? Wade had to play with two rookies and not much else. Marion was a bust and O’Neil is washed up. I’m not a huge numbers guy but he led the league in scoring and placed in the top-15 in assists, steals and blocks. I don’t think this has ever been done before. When they beat Atlanta in the first round, my MVP choice needs to be concerned with the second round match up. And who is that MVP?

1) Wally Szcrbiak…who are we kidding, LeBron James (Cleveland). I understand why people are turned off by the hype that surrounds Lebron. You see him in a ton of commercials, the media heaps tons of praise on him, etc. However, he was not only the MVP of this season, he may have had one of the best seasons of the last 25 years. Its going to be hard for anyone to touch Jordan’s 1988 season when he averaged 32.5 ppg, 8 assists and 8 rebounds that year. LeBron averaged 28 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and nearly two steals a game. In fact, he led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks for a 66 win team. Sometimes picking these things are that simple. But lets look beyond that.

His competitive nature has rubbed off on his team, especially on the defensive end. It gotten to the point where I could argue for him to be the Defensive Player of the year along with MVP. Only two other guys have done that, Hakeem Olajuwon and you know who.

Three moments stand out for me from this season. The first one was when Cleveland was playing like crap at the Clippers, down double digits in the fourth quarter and he willed that team to a victory. The second one is below.

They’re playing an average Bucks team, sleepwalking through the contest and then LeBron goes off to start the second half. He finishes with 55 points and gives them the win. If Cleveland lost any or both of those two games, they may not own the top seed in the East.

Finally, the triple-double in New York with 52 points.

Those are my award winners, lets get to the playoffs, rapid fire style because I know this has been a long read for some of you:

Boston vs. Chicago: Garnett being hurt will harm the Celtics in the playoffs, but not in this round. Chicago just doesn’t have enough to hang. If the Bulls had frontcourt scoring, maybe they win two games. The Celts will just key in on Rose. Celtics in five.

Cleveland vs. Detroit: Because it’s the Pistons, I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and have Detroit winning one game. Cleveland is a machine right now and are beatable, but not in this round. Cleveland in five.

Orlando vs. Philly: Philly can run a bit but in the end but Orlando is too deep. Orlando in six.
Miami vs. Atlanta: This is a solid matchup. I can go either way but in the end, I’ll take the best player on the floor. Miami in seven.

Los Angeles vs. Utah: This is going to be a tough go for Utah. They will give the Lakers an effort because Jerry Sloan will make the Jazz but the Lakers are looking too tough. Lakers in five

Portland vs. Houston: This is an excellent series that can go either way. Both teams will play defense but I like Portland’s scoring a little more. This will be the time for Oden to provide some positive minutes for the Blazers defending Ming. Portland in seven.

Denver vs. New Orleans: Another excellent series. The x-factor for this series and for the Nuggets for the entire season is J.R. Smith. If he gets going, look out. Carmelo will do his thing. However, I’ll take Paul in the end to at least get the Hornets past Denver. New Orleans in six.

Spurs vs. Mavericks: Wow, the first round of the West is looking solid. I can see either team winning. If I subscribe to the best player on the floor theory, I guess I could go with Dallas with Dirk or even the Spurs with Parker. Duncan is an all-timer but in his current state, he’s hobbled. However, I’m going to go with the more experienced team with the veterans to win one more series. San Antonio in seven.

OK, that’s it. I want to get some comments from you NBA fans out there, I know you exist. Until then, enjoy the playoffs and hear from you during the Conference semis.