My 2010 MLB Predictions

Well folks, its time for those Sunday Reflections…

Actually, since the MLB season has officially kicked off tonight, its time to preview the season.

First…

Music to listen to: Fixed Income by DJ Shadow



For those of you who don’t like to read my long and winding writing, here are my predictions in cheat form so you can memorize them and ridicule me in early July when they are wrong.

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Seattle (third year in a row picking them to win division, has to happen one day)
AL Wild Card: Texas
AL Champs: Yankees

AL MVP: 1) Joe Mauer, Minnesota 2) Evan Longoria, Tampa 3) Mark Teixeira, Yankees
Sleeper MVP: Josh Hamilton, Texas
AL Cy Young: 1) Felix Hernandez, Seattle 2) Jon Lester, Boston 3) CC Sabathia, Yankees
Sleeper Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit
AL Best team: Yankees
AL Worst team: Kansas City
Overrated: Boston
Underrated: Texas

NL East: Philadelphia
NL Central: Cincinnati (going with them for a third year in a row as well)
NL West: Colorado
NL Wild Card: Atlanta
NL Champs: Philly

NL MVP (not named Albert Pujols): 1) Hanley Ramirez, Florida 2) Justin Upton, Arizona 3) Chase Utley, Philadelphia
Sleeper MVP: Brian McCann, Atlanta & Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
NL Cy Young: 1) Roy Halladay, Philadelphia (if Brad Lidge doesn’t implode, he can win 25 games this year, seriously) 2) Tim Lincecum, San Francisco 3) Johan Santana, Mets
Sleeper Cy Young: Tommy Hanson, Atlanta
NL Best team: Philadelphia
NL Worst team: Pittsburgh
Overrated: Los Angeles
Underrated: Cincinnati

If I was betting money World Series: New York over Philly, again (sorry for the easy prediction, but it is what it is)
Second-safest bet: Minnesota vs. St Louis
Taking a chance World Series: Seattle vs. Atlanta

Division breakdowns:

AL East:

1) Yankees- Clearly the best team on paper in all of baseball. Age of core, especially Posada, Jeter and Rivera can break down on them. If Sabathia DOESN’T win 20 games, I’ll be shocked. The outfield can be better but no one beats these guys if all things are equal.

2) Boston- Arguably the best pitching staff in MLB. Dice-K HAS to return to form if these guys have any chance of competing for any titles. Adrian Beltre will either be the biggest bargain deal in the past five years or a colossal bust. I’m leaning for in-between. David Ortiz, have NO clue how he’s going to do this year.

3) Tampa- What does 85 wins get you in the NL Central? A division title. In the AL East, third place. A lot will be determined in the first three months. If they’re in it, they can win the division. If they’re out of it, Crawford, Pena, etc may be gone. If that happens, problems. Love Longoria for MVP contention, Price to win 15 games and Garza to emerge as a top-five AL starting pitcher.

4) Baltimore- Optimism in Charm City? Adam Jones, not Pacman, will become a perennial All-Star for these guys, Matt Wieters may be the third-best catcher in MLB by the end of the year and have a lot of young pitching that will take lumps this year but can improve. Reaching 75-80 wins would be nice.

5) Toronto- Have Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, that is all. Rough times for them

AL Central:

1) Minnesota- They win this weak division by default. When you have Mauer and Morneau, that’s a good start. Will gain a boost from playing in new stadium. Major question for them is whether Liriano can return to form off of Tommy John surgery. Its been over a year now and that’s usually the time guys get better.

2) White Sox- Like the pitching staff, especially if Peavy is on point. Where do the runs come from besides Beckham, Konerko and maybe Quentin if he’s healthy?

3) Detroit- Similar to White Sox, have beast pitchers in Verlander and Porcello, but once again, where do the runs come from? Johnny Damon, don’t make me laugh.

4) Cleveland- Such a mess. Even if LaPorta becomes a superstar, Sizemore returns to All-Star form, Jhonny Peralta bounces back, Travis Hafner learns to hit again pre-big contract signing, these guys don’t win more than 75 games. At least they’re not…

5) Kansas City- Love Zack Grinke, who doesn’t. I honestly have nothing else for you on these guys

AL West:

1) Seattle- Obviously banking on a monster year from Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee to shake off this early DL stint. Both can be good for 20 wins. Like Ichiro and addition of Figgins.

2) Texas- Taking another chance with these guys. We know that they can score runs and the addition of Vlad Guerrero as a DH was smart, but the youth of the pitching is a concern. I think that it will figure itself out and they contend for the division with Seattle

3) Anaheim- Once again, I refuse to call them by their full name because it’s the dumbest one in all of professional sports, at least in MLB. The run of division titles end. Losing Lackey hurts, even though Weaver and Santana are good pitchers. Need to see more from Kazmir and since he’s on my fantasy baseball team, I already know he’s hurt.

4) Oakland- According to people who follow this stuff, the best young pitchers in the minors and under a full year of service in MLB are Oakland and Texas. At least the Rangers can score some runs.

NL East

1) Philly- Its their League to lose. Have the best pitcher in Halladay, best top to bottom lineup, Howard may hit 50 home runs, Utley can put together a 35/100/.295 year, which is sick for a second baseman, you get the idea. Very, very worried about the bullpen especially Brad Lidge, you literally don’t know what version you’re going to get from him day-to-day. Best reliever in MLB in 2008, benched in 2009, that says it all.

2) Atlanta- Very bullish on the Braves. Always liked Lowe, Jurrjens is going to be a star and I have frickin Tommy Hanson on my short list for the Cy Young award, he’s winning close to 20 if they can score runs and that’s the rub. I think that Glaus will be decent at first, Larry Jones cobbles together a decent season, McCann becomes an MVP candidate. Prediction for Jason Haywood, 25/85/.280 and runaway Rook of the Year. If Billy Wagner’s arm stays attached, they’re the wild card of the NL.

3) Florida- Having the second-best player in the league in Hanley Ramirez is a nice start. Also like Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Dan Uggla, Chris Coghlan, etc. but just don’t have enough depth to hold up against Philly and Atlanta.

4) Mets- If Washington was worth anything, I would have put it ahead of the Mets. Beltran and Reyes are starting the season on the DL, Wright has to bounce back this year, Jason Bay is whatever and Johan Santana is coming off of elbow surgery, good times. They’re a mess.

5) Washington- Just bring Stephen Strasburg up in May or whenever you have to for contract purposes and pray for the best.

NL Central:

1) Cincinnati: OK, hear me out. I’m banking on major seasons from Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto on the field. 30 home runs from each this season, lets say yes. Pitching staff isn’t bad, especially Volquez and the natural talent of Cueto. O-dog will give them some much needed offense at short. Plus, if Chapman can come up in the middle of the year, that’s another power arm. You have to take chances in this prediction game and I’m willing to do it. I don’t like putting my hopes in Dusty Baker though. Plus they’re my adopted MLB team here in Nashville, I have to show them some love. This is for my peeps like Mr. Ingram and Jared C.

2) St. Louis: Honestly, they’re the class of the division. A grouping of Pujols and Matt Holliday is nice and the top two pitchers of Carpenter and Wainwright can be Cy Young contenders. I’m banking on the rest of the team taking a step back allowing the Reds to sneak in there…it can happen.

3) Chicago- The expectations are low, by Cubs standards, and this may be a good thing. I’ve given up on trying to figure out Zambrano and Soriano. Maybe Meggie or you Cubs fans can help me on this one.

4) Milwaukee- Love Braun and Fielder on the field, Gallardo as its top starter, and nothing else. Trevor Hoffman can’t do it again this year.

5) Houston- Pence is OK, El Cabayo (Carlos Lee) is fun at times and Berkman is good but already injured and on my fantasy team, not good. Oswalt will probably break down.

6) Pittsburgh- This is going to be another rough year for them and they’re lineup isn’t even worth discussing, even though I’m looking forward to Pedro Alvarez coming up this season from a selfish Vandy angle. OK, McCutchen is fun to watch but that’s really it. When you’re hanging your hat on Zack Duke and Octavio Dotel, you need to find another hat stand or a new set of hats, you get what I’m saying.

NL West:

1) Colorado- Its split between them and the Dodgers with the slight nod going to the Rockies. Like Tulowitzki to emerge as an MVP candidate and Jimenez to be one of the top pitchers in the NL. Pitching has depth and bullpen is solid. Soft buy on the Rockies.

2) Los Angeles- Actually think that they’re better than the Rockies on paper but won’t come together. Starting lineup is stacked with up to five all-stars, including all three outfielders and top-level catcher. Like Billingsley and Kershaw a lot and Broxton is a solid closer.

3) San Francisco- Can pitch their butts off but outside of Sandoval, can’t score a lick. Have arguably the top two out of five pitchers in entire NL with Lincecum and Cain and Wilson is a decent closer, but slapping the ball around isn’t going to get you more than third in this division.

4) Arizona- Love Upton to make a big leap this year, think Drew is underrated at shortstop, Reynolds can mash it when he isn’t striking out, Haren is an excellent starter and like Edwin Jackson in the National League, but outside of that, not much else.

5) San Diego- How long do Gonzalez and Heath Bell stay on this team? Both are gone by All-star break.